Steel Firms Close In On Cheaper Iron Ore
彭正谊
世界最大的矿产商和钢铁生产商间秘密进行的铁矿石价格谈判正在朝有利于钢铁生产商的方向发展，今年谈成的铁矿石供货合同价有可能大大低于去年水平。中国钢铁工业协会秘书长单尚华预测说，铁矿石出口的高利润时代结束了。世界最大的钢铁生产商之一浦项综合制铁公司(Posco)本周表示，鉴于当前的经济形势和疲弱的市场需求，铁矿石价格应降到2008年水平的一半，这意味着2009年的铁矿石价格将在每吨40至45美元之间。浦项预计，铁矿石价格谈判将于本月结束。由于铁矿石生产商和钢铁生产商曾经都想等待全球经济形势明朗化，这一谈判一度停顿。包括澳大利亚公司Fortescue Metals Group Ltd.在内的一些中小型铁矿石生产商已表示，它们准备把铁矿石价格在目前水平上至少下调30%。今年早些时候，铁矿石生产商曾希望2009年的铁矿石价格能保持在2008年的水平。而到2月份时，铁矿石削价幅度不超过20%他们就满足了。分析师们说，现在看来，今年铁矿石价格至少下调30%的可能性越来越大。必和必拓(BHP Billiton)及力拓(Rio Tinto)这两家公司都表示，在铁矿石价格谈判完成前它们不会公开发表评论。必和必拓的一位发言人说，公司不对事关消费者的谈判发表评论。但力拓的铁矿石部门负责人沃尔什(Sam Walsh)已表示，他认为50%的削价幅度太高了。沃尔什不愿透露他认为最终能谈成的价格是什么。力拓必和必拓以及巴西的淡水河谷(Cia. Vale do Rio Doce)等铁矿石生产商曾希望，世界各国出台的各种经济刺激措施将推动建筑业发展，增加钢铁生产商的铁矿石需求，它们需要铁矿石来生产汽车机械和建筑用钢。但市场对铁矿石的需求却并未出现增长。力拓本周透露，今年第一季度该公司铁矿石产量较上年同期下降了15%。预计必和必拓及淡水河谷的铁矿石产量也将下降。世界钢铁需求预计最早也要到夏季来临后才会增长。这意味着，铁矿石生产商在与钢铁生产商谈判2009年铁矿石合同价格时几乎没有什么回旋余地，因为供需双方必须在每年四月份结束前敲定下一年的铁矿石合同价。必和必拓想取消目前12个月一定的铁矿石定价体系，希望根据现货价格或其他一些价格指数来确定铁矿石的合同价格。铁矿石的现货价格目前在每吨50美元左右波动，虽然高于去年底时每吨36美元的低点，却仍低于每吨120美元的历史高点。淡水河谷与力拓则希望保持现有的合同定价方式，因为这有利于价格稳定。就在大型矿产商和钢铁生产商仍在进行铁矿石价格谈判之际，一些规模较小的钢铁生产商和铁矿石生产商已经在场外达成了协议。美国休斯顿的小型铁矿石生产商Cotton & Western Mining Inc.宣布，它已于中国客户达成了每吨约45美元的2009年铁矿石供货价格。一些分析师预计，中国作为主要的铁矿石进口国以及铁矿石价格谈判事实上的仲裁人，其2009年的铁矿石需求量将比2008年减少近1亿吨。中国的铁矿石进口量占铁矿石全球贸易量的80%。中国冶金矿山企业协会的咨询师邹健说，中国2009年的铁矿石进口量将为3.5亿吨，低于2008年的4.43亿吨。他说，进口量下降的部分原因是中国国内的铁矿石产量不断增加。浦项综合制铁公司负责原材料采购的副总裁在一份新闻稿中说，供需双方的价格期望值相差很大，矿产商希望只降价20%，而我们则认为铁矿石价格至少要比2008-09年水平下降50%。Robert Guy Matthews相关阅读三大铁矿石巨头退出中国行业大会 2009-04-14中钢协：国际矿产商同意铁矿石暂时降价40% 2009-03-28中国希望铁矿石价格降至07年水平 2009-03-20中铝协议催生铁矿石市场变化 2009-03-09 本文涉及股票或公司document.write (truthmeter('2009年04月17日09:44', 'RIO'));淡水河谷公司英文名称：Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (ADS)总部地点：巴西(Brazil)上市地点：纽约证交所股票代码：RIOdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年04月17日09:44', 'RTP'));力拓股份有限公司英文名称：Rio Tinto PLC (ADS)总部地点：英国上市地点：纽约证交所股票代码：RTPdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年04月17日09:44', 'BBL'));Bhp Billiton Plc (ads)总部地点：英国上市地点：纽约证交所股票代码：BBLdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年04月17日09:44', 'PKX'));浦项综合制铁公司英文名称：Posco (ads)总部地点：韩国(South Korea)上市地点：纽约证交所股票代码：PKXdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年04月17日09:44', 'BHP'));BHP Billiton Ltd. (ADS)总部地点：澳大利亚(Australia)上市地点：纽约证交所股票代码：BHPdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年04月17日09:44', 'RIO.AU'));Rio Tinto Ltd.总部地点：澳大利亚(Australia)上市地点：澳大利亚证券交易所股票代码：RIOdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年04月17日09:44', 'BHP.AU'));Bhp Billiton Ltd.总部地点：澳大利亚(Australia)上市地点：澳大利亚证券交易所股票代码：BHPdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年04月17日09:44', '005490.SE'));浦项综合制铁公司英文名称：Posco总部地点：韩国(South Korea)上市地点：韩国证交所股票代码：005490document.write (truthmeter('2009年04月17日09:44', 'RIO.LN'));力拓股份有限公司英文名称：Rio Tinto Plc总部地点：英国上市地点：伦敦股票代码：RIOdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年04月17日09:44', 'BLT.LN'));BHP Billiton PLC总部地点：英国上市地点：伦敦股票代码：BLTdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年04月17日09:44', 'VALE5.BR'));淡水河谷公司英文名称：Companhia Vale Do Rio Doce总部地点：巴西(Brazil)上市地点：圣保罗股票代码：VALE5
Secretive iron-ore price-contract talks between the world's biggest miners and steelmakers are breaking in favor of the steelmakers, which will likely win steep discounts from last year's prices.'The period of huge profits for imported iron ore is over,' predicts China Iron & Steel Association General Secretary Shan Shanghua.This week, Posco, one of the world's biggest steelmakers, said that because of the economy and weak demand, iron-ore prices should be half their 2008 levels, which would mean 2009 prices of about $40 to $45 a metric ton.Posco expects the negotiations -- which had stalled as both iron-ore producers and steelmakers waited for a clear picture of the global economy -- will wrap up this month. Some smaller iron-ore producers, including Fortescue Metals Group Ltd. in Australia, were preparing for at least a 30% cut in current prices.Earlier this year, the iron-ore producers were hoping to keep 2009 prices at the 2008 level. But by February, they were hoping to take just a 20% cut. Now it looks increasingly likely that the cut will be at least 30%, analysts said.Both BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto said they wouldn't comment until the talks are complete. 'BHP Billiton does not comment on customer negotiations,' said a company spokesman.But Sam Walsh, who heads Rio Tinto's iron-ore division, has said he thinks 50% is too steep a drop. He would not disclose what price he thought negotiations would eventually produce.Iron producers such as Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton and Brazil's Cia. Vale do Rio Doce were hoping that various stimulus proposals around the world would spur demand from steelmakers, which need iron ore to produce steel for automobiles, machinery and construction.But that hasn't happened. This week, Rio Tinto said its iron-ore production fell 15% from a year earlier in the 2009 first quarter. BHP and Vale are also expected to show a decline. And world steel demand isn't likely to improve before the summer at the earliest. That means iron-ore producers have little leverage with steelmakers in the 2009 talks because those contract prices are locked in from April to April.BHP Billiton wants to eliminate the current 12-month system and would like prices to be set by the spot market or some other index. Current spot prices are hovering around $50 a metric ton, up from the low of $36 late last year but still off their highs of $120. Vale and Rio Tinto have favored contract pricing because it offers more stability.Some smaller steelmakers and iron-ore producers have already worked out side deals independent of the major negotiations. Cotton & Western Mining Inc., a small iron-ore producer in Houston, Texas, announced that it has settled on a sales price of about $45 a metric ton for its customers in China for 2009.Some analysts have predicted that China, essentially the arbiter of iron-ore prices, will need nearly 100 million metric tons less iron ore in 2009 than it needed in 2008. Nearly 80% of the iron ore produced around the world is sold to China's steel mills.Zou Jian, a consultant at China Metallurgical Mines Association, said iron-ore imports will reach 350 million metric tons, down from 443 million metric tons in 2008. Part of the reason for the drop, he said, is that China is developing more domestic iron ore.'The price gap is quite wide as miners are demanding a 20% reduction but we believe it has to go down by at least 50% from the 2008-09 level,' said Kwon Young-tae, Posco's vice president of raw-material procurement, in a press release.Robert Guy Matthews
Secretive iron-ore price-contract talks between the world's biggest miners and steelmakers are breaking in favor of the steelmakers, which will likely win steep discounts from last year's prices.'The period of huge profits for imported iron ore is over,' predicts China Iron & Steel Association General Secretary Shan Shanghua.This week, Posco, one of the world's biggest steelmakers, said that because of the economy and weak demand, iron-ore prices should be half their 2008 levels, which would mean 2009 prices of about $40 to $45 a metric ton.Posco expects the negotiations -- which had stalled as both iron-ore producers and steelmakers waited for a clear picture of the global economy -- will wrap up this month. Some smaller iron-ore producers, including Fortescue Metals Group Ltd. in Australia, were preparing for at least a 30% cut in current prices.Earlier this year, the iron-ore producers were hoping to keep 2009 prices at the 2008 level. But by February, they were hoping to take just a 20% cut. Now it looks increasingly likely that the cut will be at least 30%, analysts said.Both BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto said they wouldn't comment until the talks are complete. 'BHP Billiton does not comment on customer negotiations,' said a company spokesman.But Sam Walsh, who heads Rio Tinto's iron-ore division, has said he thinks 50% is too steep a drop. He would not disclose what price he thought negotiations would eventually produce.Iron producers such as Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton and Brazil's Cia. Vale do Rio Doce were hoping that various stimulus proposals around the world would spur demand from steelmakers, which need iron ore to produce steel for automobiles, machinery and construction.But that hasn't happened. This week, Rio Tinto said its iron-ore production fell 15% from a year earlier in the 2009 first quarter. BHP and Vale are also expected to show a decline. And world steel demand isn't likely to improve before the summer at the earliest. That means iron-ore producers have little leverage with steelmakers in the 2009 talks because those contract prices are locked in from April to April.BHP Billiton wants to eliminate the current 12-month system and would like prices to be set by the spot market or some other index. Current spot prices are hovering around $50 a metric ton, up from the low of $36 late last year but still off their highs of $120. Vale and Rio Tinto have favored contract pricing because it offers more stability.Some smaller steelmakers and iron-ore producers have already worked out side deals independent of the major negotiations. Cotton & Western Mining Inc., a small iron-ore producer in Houston, Texas, announced that it has settled on a sales price of about $45 a metric ton for its customers in China for 2009.Some analysts have predicted that China, essentially the arbiter of iron-ore prices, will need nearly 100 million metric tons less iron ore in 2009 than it needed in 2008. Nearly 80% of the iron ore produced around the world is sold to China's steel mills.Zou Jian, a consultant at China Metallurgical Mines Association, said iron-ore imports will reach 350 million metric tons, down from 443 million metric tons in 2008. Part of the reason for the drop, he said, is that China is developing more domestic iron ore.'The price gap is quite wide as miners are demanding a 20% reduction but we believe it has to go down by at least 50% from the 2008-09 level,' said Kwon Young-tae, Posco's vice president of raw-material procurement, in a press release.Robert Guy Matthews
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