Testing the mettle
何安宜
《华尔街日报》中文网络版专稿Tom Orlik眼下的经济危机给中国钢铁工业改革，整合国内生产和收购海外资产带来了机遇，但由于经济刺激措施已经推动钢铁和铁矿石价格出现了回升，改革的机会窗口可能会迅速关闭。海外需求的下降和国内经济明显放缓预示中国钢铁业会面临困难时期。在2008年89月全球危机渐露头角时，中国大陆的工厂已经因举办奥运会而采取的限制措施减少了生产。但是，当危机第四季度恶化时，生产商仍有库存需要消化，价格也直线下跌。随着年底前库存的减少，政府公布4万亿元刺激计划后需求的上升随即导致了价格的上涨，但就此判断中国钢铁业的困境已经过去可能还为时尚早。经济衰退时期的钢铁业面临两大挑战：投入成本上升和产能过剩。在投入成本方面，中国国内铁矿石的供应在质量和数量方面都存在不足。这意味着国内生产商要受到外国铁矿石公司的摆布。澳大利亚的力拓(Rio Tinto)和必和必拓(BHP Billiton)以及巴西淡水河谷(Companhia Vale Do Rio Doce)控制着海运铁矿石市场的75%，因此他们能够迫使中国急需铁矿石的生产商接受价格的大幅上涨。2008年的年度合约谈判中价格上涨65%就是这些中国生产商被迫吞下的一个苦果。铁矿石生产商还强迫中国买家接受一项运费均等协议，即向较近的澳大利亚生产商支付与遥远的巴西生产商相同的运费，这种屈辱更令他们感到苦涩。在产能过剩方面，中国经济高速发展和快速的城市化社会带来的无尽需求吸引国内钢铁公司对产能进行过度投资，该行业中许多小厂之间的竞争进一步加剧了这个问题。中国钢铁工业协会说，2008年中国钢铁厂的开工率为83%。在2009年，预计钢铁产能为6.5亿吨，但国内需求只有5亿吨。随着小厂停工和大厂限产，一年内83%的开工率看来都遥不可及。投入端居高不下的铁矿石价格和需求的下降，加上产能过剩导致最终产品价格下跌，令国内生产商雪上加霜。但是，单个的钢铁厂面临困难，对整个行业而言却可能是个好消息。对北京希望优化经济结构的人而言，衰退恰恰是他们一直在寻找的机会，让中国企业能有机会收购海外资产和整合国内钢铁业。中国的对外投资战略并不是新鲜事。2008年，中国钢铁公司至少收购了总计至少180亿美元的矿业资产。但随着商品牛市和资源民族主义的崛起，对于大陆的潜在全球战略投资者来说这是个小数目。如今，随着铁矿石价格从高点明显回落和信贷市场冻结，澳大利亚的小型矿业公司都在寻找投资者，而中国企业也乐于满足他们的要求。鞍钢(Ansteel)首长国际(Shougang Concord)与武汉钢铁(Wuhan Iron and Steel)据说都与澳大利亚矿业公司进行了或准备进行铁矿石现金交易。最值得关注的是，中国铝业如今也加入了这一行列：有报导称，该公司将向资金匮乏的力拓股份有限公司(Rio Tinto PLC)投资190亿美元。由于中国银行业监督管理委员会(China Banking Regulatory Commission)最近改变了政策，允许商业银行为海外收购提供资金，显然中国相对稳健的银行业将支撑钢铁企业在海外扩张的雄心。在今年4月份进行的年度铁矿石合约谈判中，我的钢铁(Mysteel)首席分析师贾良群预计价格将减低约40%，但政府希望届时许多中国企业已经能够从国内获得更多的铁矿石供应。在国内整合方面，2005年国家发改委制定了一个钢铁业发展和改革的计划，希望到2010年时，国内前10大生产商能够占到产量的50%，2020年时将这个比例提高到70%。但是，随着钢材价格上涨，以及地方政府不愿失去对宝贵的生产资产的控制，行业整合举步维艰。截至2007年，前10大生产商所占钢铁总产量的比例刚刚超过了36%。现在，随着需求疲软和信贷紧缩，小厂普遍感到了压力。在2008年底，一些小厂在市场上的出售价格只是繁荣时期要价的一半，有些则几乎分毫不值。对拥有现代技术并身处东部沿海战略地理位置的小厂来说，合并存在着现实的可能性。但是，正如麦肯锡公司(McKinsey & Company)中国钢铁咨询业务领导人艾家瑞(Karel Eloot)所指出的，有能力进行收购的企业会在对盈利能力做出冷静评价的基础上作出决定。对一些效率低下的小厂而言，现实不是合并，而是可能被淘汰和破产。对于那些生存下来的企业而言，政府希望市场份额的扩大将推动投资效率提高，产品质量改善，并进军海外市场。但是，国内整合和境外投资的机会窗口可能转瞬即逝。政府4万亿元刺激计划的重点是建筑和基础设施。在经济适用房铁路震后重建方面的大量投资都意味着钢铁需求的增加。对汽车行业的扶持也转化为钢铁业更多的订单。需求的增加将促使工厂重新启动闲置产能，从而帮助小厂避免不可避免的厄运，并推动铁矿石价格从低点回升，让小型矿业公司走出困境，为中国钢铁公司即将进行的年度合约价格谈判制造困难。中国的资本密集型刺激计划对经济可能是一剂良药，但对于改革钢铁行业的梦想而言，它却可能是一服毒药。（编者按：本文作者Tom Orlik是自由撰稿人，现居上海，曾任英国财政部政策顾问。文中所述只代表他的个人观点。）相关阅读欧盟对中国产钢盘条征收反倾销税 2009-02-11钢铁公司欲大幅压低铁矿石协议价格 2009-01-26淡水河谷暗示可能接受铁矿石价格下调10% 2009-01-22江苏沙钢逆市前行 2009-01-08中国搁置建立钢铁储备计划 2009-01-07钢铁厂商谨慎酝酿涨价计划 2009-01-07鞍钢股份将收购母公司电渣重溶设施 2009-01-06中国三家钢铁公司计划合并 2008-12-31
Tom OrlikThe economic crisis is an opportunity to reform China's steel industry, consolidating production at home and acquiring assets abroad, but with the economic stimulus already driving steel and iron ore prices back up, the window of opportunity for reform may be closing fast.Failing overseas demand and a sharp slowdown in the domestic economy spell tough times for the Chinese steel industry. As the global crisis unfurled in August and September of 2008, the mainland's mills had already slowed production in response to the Olympic restrictions. But when the crisis hit home in the fourth quarter producers were still left with inventories to exhaust and prices had only one direction of travel down. With the inventories buffer worn thin at the end of the year, the uptick in demand following announcement of the government's RMB4trn rescue package has fed through into an immediate increase in prices, but it may be too soon to call an end to the bad times for China's troubled steel sector.The steel industry entered the economic downturn with two major challenges: rising input costs and excess capacity. On input costs, China's domestic supplies of iron ore are limited in both quality and quantity. That means domestic producers are at the mercy of foreign ore companies. With 75% of the seaborne market under their control, Australia's Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton and Brazil's Vale have been able to squeeze massive price increases out of China's ore starved producers. A 65% price increase in the annual contract negotiations in 2008 was a bitter pill to swallow. The indignity of forced agreement to producers' demand for a shipping-equalization tariff -- bringing prices for ore from nearby Australia into line with those from far away Brazil -- did little to sweeten it.On overcapacity, apparently limitless demand from China's rapidly growing economy and rapidly urbanizing society lured domestic mills into over-investment in production, a problem exacerbated by competition between the many small players inhabiting the industry. According to the China Iron and Steel Association, in 2008 Chinese steel mills ran at 83% capacity. In 2009, the forecast is for 650m tonnes production capacity but domestic demand of just 500m tonnes. With small mills stopping and larger mills limiting production, for the year ahead even 83% utilization seems like a distant prospect.Sky high iron ore prices at the input end and falling demand combined with overcapacity driving down prices for the final product add up to double trouble for domestic producers. But troubled times for individual mills could be good news for the industry as a whole. For the economic optimizers in Beijing, the downturn is just the opportunity they have been looking for - a chance for China Inc to buy up assets abroad and consolidate the industry at home.China's outbound investment strategy is not new. In 2008, Chinese steel companies made bids for mining assets totaling at least $18bn. But in the commodity bull run and with resource nationalism on the rise it was slim pickings for the mainland's would-be global strategists. Now, with iron ore prices significantly down from their peak and credit markets frozen, Australia's junior minors are in a the hunt for investors and Chinese firms are happy to oblige. Ansteel, Shougang Concord and Wuhan Iron and Steel have all reportedly sewn up cash for ore deals with Australian miners.Most significantly, Chinalco is now joining the party with reports of a $19.5bn injection into cash strapped giant Rio Tinto. And with a recent change in policy by the China Banking Regulatory Commission allowing commercial banks to fund overseas acquisitions, it is clear that China's relatively robust banking sector will stand behind the steel mills' overseas ambitions. At the annual iron ore contract negotiations in April, Jia Liangqun (良群), chief analyst for Mysteel, expects a reduction in price of about 40%, but by that time, the government hopes, many Chinese firms will already enjoy access to their own increased supplies of iron ore.On domestic consolidation, in 2005, the NDRC set out a plan for the development and reform of the steel industry, aiming for the top 10 producers accounting for 50% of production by 2010 and 70% by 2020. But with steel prices holding up and local government unwilling to see prized production assets slip out of their grasp, the consolidation of the industry has proved a difficult business. As of 2007, the top 10 producers only account for just over 36% of production.Now, with demand weak and credit tight, small mills are feeling the heat. At the end of 2008 some small mills were on the market for half the price they could have commanded in the boom times, and some for virtually nothing. For mills with modern technology, and a strategic geographical position along the East coast, merger is a real possibility. But as McKinsey & Company's China steel practice lead Karel Eloot (艾家瑞) points out, firms in a position to buy are going to make the decision based on hard-headed evaluation of the bottom line. For some small unproductive mills, the reality is not merger but obsolescence and bankruptcy. For those that remain, the government hopes, a larger market share will enable investments in improved efficiency, higher quality products, and an assault on global markets.But the window of opportunity for domestic consolidation and outbound investment may be closing fast. The government's RMB4trn rescue package is focused on construction and infrastructure. Massive investment in affordable housing, railways, and post-earthquake reconstruction all promise to translate into higher demand for steel. Support for the automotive industry will also translate into more orders on the steel sector's books. Strengthening demand will allow mills to bring redundant capacity back on line， helping small mills avoid the inevitable, and drive the price of iron ore back up from its slump helping junior miners out of their difficulties and creating difficulties for Chinese mills in the upcoming negotiations on the annual contract price. China's capital-intensive rescue package might be medicine the economy, but for dreams of a reformed steel sector, it looks a lot like poison.
Tom OrlikThe economic crisis is an opportunity to reform China's steel industry, consolidating production at home and acquiring assets abroad, but with the economic stimulus already driving steel and iron ore prices back up, the window of opportunity for reform may be closing fast.Failing overseas demand and a sharp slowdown in the domestic economy spell tough times for the Chinese steel industry. As the global crisis unfurled in August and September of 2008, the mainland's mills had already slowed production in response to the Olympic restrictions. But when the crisis hit home in the fourth quarter producers were still left with inventories to exhaust and prices had only one direction of travel down. With the inventories buffer worn thin at the end of the year, the uptick in demand following announcement of the government's RMB4trn rescue package has fed through into an immediate increase in prices, but it may be too soon to call an end to the bad times for China's troubled steel sector.The steel industry entered the economic downturn with two major challenges: rising input costs and excess capacity. On input costs, China's domestic supplies of iron ore are limited in both quality and quantity. That means domestic producers are at the mercy of foreign ore companies. With 75% of the seaborne market under their control, Australia's Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton and Brazil's Vale have been able to squeeze massive price increases out of China's ore starved producers. A 65% price increase in the annual contract negotiations in 2008 was a bitter pill to swallow. The indignity of forced agreement to producers' demand for a shipping-equalization tariff -- bringing prices for ore from nearby Australia into line with those from far away Brazil -- did little to sweeten it.On overcapacity, apparently limitless demand from China's rapidly growing economy and rapidly urbanizing society lured domestic mills into over-investment in production, a problem exacerbated by competition between the many small players inhabiting the industry. According to the China Iron and Steel Association, in 2008 Chinese steel mills ran at 83% capacity. In 2009, the forecast is for 650m tonnes production capacity but domestic demand of just 500m tonnes. With small mills stopping and larger mills limiting production, for the year ahead even 83% utilization seems like a distant prospect.Sky high iron ore prices at the input end and falling demand combined with overcapacity driving down prices for the final product add up to double trouble for domestic producers. But troubled times for individual mills could be good news for the industry as a whole. For the economic optimizers in Beijing, the downturn is just the opportunity they have been looking for - a chance for China Inc to buy up assets abroad and consolidate the industry at home.China's outbound investment strategy is not new. In 2008, Chinese steel companies made bids for mining assets totaling at least $18bn. But in the commodity bull run and with resource nationalism on the rise it was slim pickings for the mainland's would-be global strategists. Now, with iron ore prices significantly down from their peak and credit markets frozen, Australia's junior minors are in a the hunt for investors and Chinese firms are happy to oblige. Ansteel, Shougang Concord and Wuhan Iron and Steel have all reportedly sewn up cash for ore deals with Australian miners.Most significantly, Chinalco is now joining the party with reports of a $19.5bn injection into cash strapped giant Rio Tinto. And with a recent change in policy by the China Banking Regulatory Commission allowing commercial banks to fund overseas acquisitions, it is clear that China's relatively robust banking sector will stand behind the steel mills' overseas ambitions. At the annual iron ore contract negotiations in April, Jia Liangqun (良群), chief analyst for Mysteel, expects a reduction in price of about 40%, but by that time, the government hopes, many Chinese firms will already enjoy access to their own increased supplies of iron ore.On domestic consolidation, in 2005, the NDRC set out a plan for the development and reform of the steel industry, aiming for the top 10 producers accounting for 50% of production by 2010 and 70% by 2020. But with steel prices holding up and local government unwilling to see prized production assets slip out of their grasp, the consolidation of the industry has proved a difficult business. As of 2007, the top 10 producers only account for just over 36% of production.Now, with demand weak and credit tight, small mills are feeling the heat. At the end of 2008 some small mills were on the market for half the price they could have commanded in the boom times, and some for virtually nothing. For mills with modern technology, and a strategic geographical position along the East coast, merger is a real possibility. But as McKinsey & Company's China steel practice lead Karel Eloot (艾家瑞) points out, firms in a position to buy are going to make the decision based on hard-headed evaluation of the bottom line. For some small unproductive mills, the reality is not merger but obsolescence and bankruptcy. For those that remain, the government hopes, a larger market share will enable investments in improved efficiency, higher quality products, and an assault on global markets.But the window of opportunity for domestic consolidation and outbound investment may be closing fast. The government's RMB4trn rescue package is focused on construction and infrastructure. Massive investment in affordable housing, railways, and post-earthquake reconstruction all promise to translate into higher demand for steel. Support for the automotive industry will also translate into more orders on the steel sector's books. Strengthening demand will allow mills to bring redundant capacity back on line， helping small mills avoid the inevitable, and drive the price of iron ore back up from its slump helping junior miners out of their difficulties and creating difficulties for Chinese mills in the upcoming negotiations on the annual contract price. China's capital-intensive rescue package might be medicine the economy, but for dreams of a reformed steel sector, it looks a lot like poison.
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