What’s the value created by bitcoin?
Regarding Bitcoins, Nakamoto Satoshi himself once said two sentences:
Sorry to be a wet blanket. Writing a description for general audiences is bloody hard. There’s nothing to relate it to.
If you don’t believe me or don’t get it, I don’t have time to try to convince you, sorry.
The first sentence is that Bitcoin is so hard to explain, and it is completely impossible to chat. The second sentence is that if you don’t believe it, I’m not free to explain it.
Indeed, it is too difficult to make it clear that the Bitcoin value . I have been in this industry for many years. When I first started this thing, many of my friends had opinions. I also tried to explain in the past, but basically the chicken talks with the duck.
So many years have passed. The good news is that I have more and more people accepting Bitcoin, including some of my former friends. I have experienced btc price falling from 5000 to 900. Everyone in the industry feels jeopardy. At that time, I had a friend who was a big holder and said that he wanted to jump on a bridge. Also experienced from 900 to 8000 slowly, feel human madness. Now that I have faith in Bitcoin, the more I understand about this society and the deeper the understanding of human nature, the more I believe in Bitcoin.
I don’t introduce the basic principles. Based on what I’ve been thinking for years, I’ve talked about the value of Bitcoin from three perspectives.
Little thinking about currency
The currencies issued by countries around the world are basically credit currencies. For example, the US dollar has decoupled itself from gold since the end of the Bretton Woods system. It is generally believed that the value of modern dollars is supported by the national credit of the United States, or national strength and military power.
However, this inside is specious. Because the U.S.’s national strength and military power cannot be quantified, who can tell me how many US dollars is the U.S. national strength and military strength? Since it cannot be quantified, how can we guarantee that the US dollar has not been printed more? In fact, this cannot be guaranteed. On the other hand, the IN GOD WE TRUST is written on the U.S. dollar. This is equal to saying clearly that the U.S. dollar is actually a kind of faith. Just as Trump’s supporters shouted during the election campaign, “America! America!”, people’s trust in the US dollar is not purely rational, but a mixture of rationality, pride, sacredness, specious and inertial thinking. .
This kind of trust is also fragile. Nearly the Thai baht and the ruble, for example, have fallen by 40 per cent overnight, which is also commonplace. Even more ridiculous, such as the gold round ticket, the Republic of China government is basically regarded as fraud.
The same is true of Bitcoin. Its value comes from trust, but it is not the government’s credit endorsement. The letter to Bitcoin is a more pure letter, because it is even less intangible than the legal currency, but there are a handful of people who believe it, such as me. This kind of letter comes from the conciseness and strength of bitcoin technology, from the ideas contained in it that transcend the times, from the dissatisfaction with the existing monetary system, from the natural yearning of human beings for progressive things.
The existence of this group of people caused the price of Bitcoin to be zero. For me, even if I fall to 1 dollar, I will not sell it. I am willing to take a few of them, even if it is worthless to be a collection of art. Because it is very delicate, I like it very much. Well, Bitcoin is valuable to me.
And, as long as it’s cheap enough, I’ll keep buying. Even if you don’t believe in Bitcoin, you can cash in here. Then Bitcoin has value for you. The total number of Bitcoin is limited, and the more people believe it, the greater its value.
Therefore, Bitcoin is a kind of communism, and his trust comes from the loose alliance formed by every believer, from every ordinary person.
In addition, the government is nothing but a form of organization that the society now produces. Those who have seen “A Brief History of Humanity” will know that all aspects of modern society are created by human beings with imagination. The government and Bitcoin are all topologically equivalent.
2. Bitcoin price and reflexivity
Buffett’s value investment theory is very popular: Because of human fear or greed, the price of a thing may temporarily be higher than or lower than its value, but in the end it will definitely return to value itself.
Soros’s point is that because of the incompleteness of human nature, a thing never returns to its value. That is, overkill must be overcorrected. When the value of a thing is absolutely underestimated, in the process of rising, people’s cognition of rising is constantly strengthened, often leading to crazy buying, and eventually the price will rise above its own value, and vice versa.
In this process, the rise in prices has triggered people’s pursuit of a thing, and the resulting rise in people’s expectations will continue to push up the price of this thing.
Soros calls it reflexivity.
For example: There is a prophet in the village. He told everyone that gold will go up and everyone will buy gold. Everyone bought a swarm of bees, and the supply of gold was in short supply. It really rose. So everyone said that the predictions of the prophet are true.
This process has nothing to do with the basic value of gold or the actual demand for gold.
If you look at a magnifying glass. In this process, the bullish view of gold is constantly being strengthened. Because gold is also rising in the band during the process. If there was a first upside call, someone sold it. When the second rises to a higher level, the person will feel that this time his operation is particularly stupid, so when he next buys again, he will not easily sell. Even if he sells it again next time, there will always be a time when he will “learn smart” and will no longer sell it.
People are still social animals. Therefore, this increase is expected to continue to spread ah, but also “learn” each other, exacerbating this weakness of human nature.
And often when a bubble bursts, most people cannot escape. A few rational people can run away, and a few win the majority, earning money. In the book “The Raging People” it is said that the group’s IQ is often lower than one person. In management, this is called the herd effect. In China’s stock market, this is called “the retail dividend.”
Due to the reflexive nature, more and more people around me are interested in Bitcoin, or believe that Bitcoin is essentially because Bitcoin has gone up. Some people may have looked at Bitcoin, but when bitcoin comes back to life, many people start to have positive expectations of bitcoin, and then “persuade” themselves to believe that Bitcoin, the previously unacceptable views have slowly accepted .
Those who used to short positions were also the most shocked and shocked. When they turned to believing in Bitcoin, they were even more radical than the original believers.
The story is an important manifestation of reflexivity.
Bitcoin is currently used mainly in the black market, gambling, hacking, money laundering, and pyramid schemes. I personally believe that these businesses are currently unable to hold up the bitcoin market cap. But on the other hand, we can hear a lot of stories about Bitcoin about the story of Nakamoto Satoshi. The story is magical. Every bubble in human history is supported by countless stories. The storyteller spoke and he believed. This is also the ecology of Bitcoin now.
3. The disappearance and divinity of Satoshi Nakamoto
Many people will mention if BTC is valuable. Then I will go for a bitcoin myself, will it go up.
As already mentioned above, faith is the root cause of Bitcoin’s value. Bitcoin’s letter is even a bit closer to religion. The first block dug by Bitcoin is the Genesis Block. There is a religious idea in itself.
The birth of religion requires the innovation of ideas. If you engage in a religion yourself, it is not a religion. It can only be called a cult.
The original sin of Christianity and the Salmon ideology of Buddhism are all very profound thoughts. When they emerged, they were a blow to the dimension reduction of primitive religions.
In the same way, Bitcoin turned out and the thoughts contained in it are also shocking. Even though today, many people still insist that it is a scam. When I first heard about Bitcoin, I also thought it was a pyramid scheme. But when I read the white paper of Satoshi Nakamoto, I was immediately brainwashed. Bitcoin is revolutionary and has deep foundations.
Bitcoin’s code can be copied, but this background cannot be copied. To put it plainly, the pattern and realm of the acolyte currency determine that it cannot afford it.
The birth of religion also requires a story.
The story of Jesus, or the story of Gamani, is well-known.
The existence of Satoshi Nakamoto also increased Bitcoin’s divinity.
Put forward a beautiful algorithm to solve the cryptological problems; indignation of the hypocrisy of the central bank, redemption of the wealth of the public is constantly diluted; led the early disciples, Andresen, Hal and others to achieve bitcoin. Nakamoto did not make mistakes: Bitcoin’s early seemingly redundant designs escaped many later problems. For example, the selected Koblitz curve avoids the hidden back door of the CIA in the encryption standard. For example, based on the encryption of the elliptic curve digital signature algorithm, it is hashed twice, which is enough to cope with the threat of the quantum computer.
Even more legendary is that he disappeared. From beginning to end, no one knows who he is. Bitcoin now has a market value of hundreds of billions of dollars. From a historical point of view, Satoshi Nakamoto will certainly become a historical figure. Among all the historical figures, people have never shown themselves. I am laughing and laughing except for Lan Ling, and I no longer know other people.
The value of Bitcoin comes from the letter. I accepted it. I believe it is valuable, and you can also believe it has no value. My mission is to spread it and let its essence go into more people’s minds. As a person with a belief, I do not care about others’ incomprehension or slander. I, and everyone who believes in bitcoin, we are small. But the fire of the stars can pave the way.
In the words of Satoshi Nakamoto: I’m sure that in 20 years there will either be very large transaction volume or no volume.